Weekly Round Up

Update 820: All but Tied: Polls in Bell Lap

Update 820 — All but Tied: Polls in Bell Lap;Global Leaders Worry About Trump Tariffs The final New York Times/Siena poll of the 2024 election cycle published yesterday shows, for the first time, a flat-footed tie at 48 percent each for presidential candidates Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. In all of the seven battleground states …

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Update 818: Inflation Falls to 2.4%, Lowest Since Feb. 2021

Update 818 — CPI Down Six Straight Months;Inflation Falls to 2.4%, Lowest Since Feb. 2021 Yesterday’s CPI report for September showed prices across the board dropping marginally to 2.4 percent, year-on-year, from 2.5 percent in August. Although the new rate — the lowest since early 2021 — came in slightly above expectations, the modest decline …

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Update 816: September Unemployment Dips to 4.1%

Update 816 — Unemployment, Dipping to 4.1%,VP Debate, ILA Strike, Helene/FEMA Top Week This morning’s stronger-than-expected jobs report, showing 254,00 jobs added to the economy and unemployment ticking down to 4.1 percent in September, is an encouraging sign that the labor market remains strong after recent signs of cooling. In another encouraging development, dockworkers who …

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Update 814: Shutdown Averted, Inflation Abates, Week’s News

Update 814 — Biden Signs 3-Mo FY25 CR;August PCE Drops to 2.2%, Leading Week This week, right before the start of the 2025 fiscal year, Congress approved and the President signed a continuing resolution (CR) allowing the federal government to remain open, with spending held constant at last year’s level until December 20, putting off …

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Update 808: Budget’s September Sprint

Update 808 — Sprint: September and Beyond:FY25 Budget, Harris Tax Proposals, Jobs Report This week’s leading macroeconomic news: the August jobs report, which showed that the American labor market has solidly shifted into lower gear, with job gains, 142,000 for the month, notably cooling. Also, Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris debuted a new set of …

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Update 801: Job Gains Slow to 114K

Update 801 – Job Gains Slow to 114KAs Congress Heads for August Recess This morning’s weaker-than-expected jobs report showing just a net 114,000 positions added in July suggests that the Fed’s decision earlier this week to hold interest rates steady instead of initiating cuts may have been too hawk-ish. With the labor market still strong, …

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Update 795 — CPI: First Monthly Price Drop in Four Years

Update 795 — June CPI Down by 0.1%First Monthly Price Drop Since May 2020 The Consumer Price Index (CPI) turned a corner last month, with the report for June released yesterday showing that the cost of goods and services declined nationally on a monthly basis for the first time in over four years. Year-on-year, prices …

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Update 792: Debate Postscript and Weekly Roundup

Update 792 – Biden’s Debate PerformanceRaises Questions, Leading Week’s Roundup President Biden’s halting performance in last night’s debate, including several gaffes and his inability to counter Donald Trump’s relentless lying and present a clear vision of where he seeks to lead the nation, has raised questions from agonized Democrats about his candidacy for re-election. Trump …

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