Update 897 – Trump’s Shutdown Threat:Mass Gov’t Firings without Budget Deal Congressional leaders remained at an impasse this week on federal government funding beyond October 1, leaving four days until a government shutdown kicks in, absent an agreement. Democrats want healthcare concessions in exchange for their votes – seven of which are necessary to reach …
Update 894 – Fed Cuts Rates 25 BPs; Only Dissent: Trump-Nominated Miran The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points, as expected, at the conclusion of its September FOMC meeting this afternoon. Fed Governor Stephen Miran, who has not resigned from his position at the White House, dissented, voting instead for a 50 basis …
Update 893 – Macro Muddle Faces Fed; Democrats’ Shutdown Strategy Emerges The nation’s macroeconomic picture got murkier this week, with CPI showing August prices rising by the most since January, even as jobless claims jumped by the most in four years this week and unemployment edged up last month — “a curious kind of balance,” …
Update 875 – OBBB Senate Obstacles,Fed Freeze, Genius Act Vote Lead Week With the Senate Finance Committee’s text for the GOP One Big Beautiful Bill (OBBB) released this week, we now have a full picture of the Senate’s approach to reconciliation. Though expected to be a more moderate version of the House bill that passed …
Update 871 – Tariffs’ Court Battles;Musk Mission Ends in Fiscal Failure Trump’s trade agenda hit a major but tentative roadblock this week as two courts halted many of his tariffs, ruling his use of emergency powers “unlawful.” As the appeals process unfolds, the administration is able to maintain its tariff rates, but its long-term survival …
Update 868 – Reconciliation Halted:House Budget Stops Massive Tax Bill In a somewhat surprising turn of events today, the House Budget Committee rejected the GOP reconciliation blueprint, with four Republicans joining Democrats in opposition. The Republican defectors cited concerns over the proposal’s overall deficit impact, as well as delays in implementing cost-reduction measures like Medicaid …
Update 865 – Another Fed Rate Pause;June Hold Likely Given Tariff Uncertainty The Federal Reserve hit pause, as expected, on interest rates at the conclusion of its May FOMC meeting this afternoon. While many expected Fed Chair Powell to hint at a coming rate cut at the FOMC’s next meeting in June, he instead emphasized …
Update 864 – GDP Contracts by 0.3%;Trump Skins FY26 Domestic Spending Three key pieces of economic data were released this week. The Fed’s preferred measure of inflation ticked down to 2.3 percent in March, nearing the Fed’s two percent target, while a strong 177,000 jobs were added to the economy and unemployment remained unchanged at …
Update 831 — CPI’s Elusive Soft Landing;FTC Pick Named; FSOC, SEC’s Stalled Out This week’s CPI report for November showed the road back to the Fed’s two percent target inflation rate remains bumpy – but the new data is unlikely to push the Fed to readjust its downward interest rate trajectory – though Donald Trump …
Update 824 – Inflation Under Trump: What Americans Should Look Out For? Yesterday’s CPI report showed inflation rising slightly to 2.6 percent year-on-year, up from 2.4 percent in September. The new data shows that inflation remains above the Federal Reserve’s two percent target, but has fallen significantly from its peak of 9.1 percent in mid-2022. High …
