Update 908 — Tuesday is Blues’ Day:
Significant Off-Year Democratic Gains
Democrats saw resounding electoral success Tuesday night, with the opportunity to respond to the horrors of Trump 2.0 driving Democrats to the polls. Whether this blue wave will be predictive of 2026 is to be seen, but Democrats exceeded expectations. The government shutdown also continued this week, setting the record for the longest funding lapse in history on Wednesday. Talks of bipartisan negotiations have picked up in the Senate as the impact of the shutdown grows, but a solution remains elusive.
Speaker Emerita Nancy Pelosi announced this week that she will end her storied 39-year DC career at the end of this Congress. Pelosi became the first woman Speaker of the House in 2007 and was central to the passage of the Dodd-Frank Act and the Affordable Care Act. During Trump’s first term, she led the fight against him, securing the impeachment of the President twice. 20/20 Vision salutes Representative Pelosi for her historic career in public service.
Good weekends all…
Best,
Dana
Headline
Election 2025: Democrats Deliver Rebuke to Trump
Up and down the ballot, Democrats had the best election night they could have possibly had. Turnout gained substantially over 2021, with more than 2 million New Yorkers voting in the Mayoral race, the most since 1969. Virginia saw record-breaking turnout with 3.3 million Virginians voting, the highest non-Presidential year turnout in the state’s history.
Virginia
Governor
On Tuesday night, in one of the first races called, Abigail Spanberger became the first woman elected governor of Virginia by 15 points, a vastly wider margin than even the most optimistic pollsters projected. She is one of four women to have ever won statewide in Virginia. Her success can be attributed to factors including the DOGE lay-offs, the month-long government shutdown, and a remarkably terrible Republican nominee.
Spanberger won with 57.2 percent of the vote. Her performance with young people is noteworthy, winning over 8 out of 10 women under 30 and 6 out of 10 men under 30. Spanberger performed well with Black, Hispanic, and Asian voters, but did not win the majority of white Virginians.
Lt. Governor
Ghazala Hashmi has made history as the first Muslim woman to win statewide office in the United States with 55.2 percent. Hashmi helped Democrats regain control of the legislature in 2019 when she became the first Muslim elected to the Virginia Senate.
Attorney General
The Democratic Party has long struggled with purity tests, making Jay Jones’ decisive victory noteworthy despite the text message scandal that broke in October. Jones won with 52.7 percent of the vote to incumbent Miyares’ 46.9 percent, signaling that the real consequences of a Trump-backed Attorney General were worse than regrettable text messages.
Legislature
Democrats picked up 13 seats in the House of Delegates, bringing their total to 64. Included in the flipped district was moderate Republican State Delegate Carrie E. Coyner, who released the 3-year-old texts she received from Jones last month. Of the 13 seats Democrats flipped, 10 were won by women. This election brings the House back to 2019 levels, the first time Dems had a majority in the Virginia House since 1997.
New Jersey
Governor
Mikie Sherrill’s margin of victory may have been one of the most surprising and inspiring moments this Tuesday. While Sherrill was favored to win, a double-digit win was not on anyone’s radar. Sherrill earned 56.4 percent to Republican Ciattarelli’s 43 percent. Not only did every county in New Jersey shift blue, a flip from 2024, but Sherrill tore into Trump’s Latino support in New Jersey, winning all 10 of the districts with at least a 1 of 5 voters being Latino, three of which flipped from Trump.
Similar to Spanberger, a majority of men under 30 voted for Sherrill. Young men, especially white men, have been the subject of identity politics, with their swing to Trump in 2024 despite Gen Z being seen as progressive voters.
Legislature
Democrats in New Jersey have expanded to their largest majority in 52 years. New Jersey is still counting mail-in ballots, but election officials are anticipating the new super majority expanding to at least 55 seats.
New York City
Zohran Mamdani delivered a political upset in June’s Democratic primary and was elected to become the first Muslim mayor of New York City on Tuesday, winning 50.4 percent to Andrew Cuomo’s 41.6 percent. Senior Democratic leaders varied from hesitant or late to support Mamdani to downright hostile commentary. Despite a nasty campaign, Mamdani offered a campaign focused on affordability and mobilized the young and working class people of New York.
Mamdani has already started building his transition team, including:
- Lina Khan, FTC chair under President Biden.
- Maria Torres-Springer, First Deputy Mayor under Eric Adams, before resigning last winter.
- Grace Bonilla, Head of United Way New York City, and alumna of Bloomberg’s administration.
- Melanie Hartzog, Deputy strategist for the De Blasio administration.
Mamdani must now work with Governor Hochul to fund many of his very popular campaign promises. Some Democrats worry that Mamdani will be a prime target for Republicans and Fox News to cry “socialism,” while others point out that Republicans will call Democrats scary socialists regardless of who leads New York City, or even the country.
California Prop 50
The passage of Prop 50 marks the Democrats’ first real success in counter-redistricting, and the decisive victory has paved the way for other Democratic states to join the fight. For more information on the implications of this vote, see our August update on redistricting.
- Virginia: The week before election day, Virginia state lawmakers made progress toward amending their constitution to begin the redistricting process. Constitutional amendments must pass in two separate Congresses before going to voters. The newly elected Congress will likely move quickly to pass it for the second time.
- Maryland: Governor Moore has established a five-member redistricting advisory commission, chaired by Senator Angela Alsobrooks (D-MD), to recommend “fair and representative” congressional districts. Republicans currently only hold 1 seat. A special session is expected to commence before the end of the year to approve new maps.
Across the Country
Other notable wins on the state and local level include:
- Georgia: Two Democrats flipped seats on the Georgia Public Service Commission.
- Mississippi: Court-ordered redistricting gave Black voters a chance at more representation in the State Capitol and broke the House’s supermajority.
- Pennsylvania: Voters chose to retain three state Supreme Court judges, the culmination of a multi-million-dollar fight from conservative billionaire Jeff Yass. Voters also chose Democratic candidates for a special election to the Supreme Court and to the Commonwealth Court. Bucks County, a county Trump won narrowly in 2024, elected its first-ever Democratic district attorney.
- Georgetown, SC: Democrats flipped all three city council seats
- Orlando, FL: Democrats flipped the last Republican held city council seat.
- Syracuse, NY: Democrats now control the Onondaga County legislature for the first time in 50 years.
- Charlotte, NC: Democrats flipped a seat on the city council, the first time since 1999.
Democratic National Committee Chairman Ken Martin is enthusiastic that Democrats will carry this support to 2026. Democrats overperformed prior margins by an average of 14 percent compared to 2024.
2026
Affordability and corruption were top of mind both for candidates and voters Tuesday night. Democrats have the benefit of being the minority in Congress, leaving the blame for the continued economic hardship to the Republicans who ran on the issue and won big in 2024. The question of the hour is: Can Democrats channel the blowout energy from this election to a flip not just the House but the Senate as well? Democratic pick-up opportunities include Maine, North Carolina, Ohio, Iowa, and Texas. Should Democrats grab some real power on the federal level during the midterms, they will need to better defend their record to the American people than they did in 2024.
Other Developments
Shutdown
Shutdown Sets Record, Senate Talks Ongoing
Today marks the 39th day of the current federal government shutdown, surpassing the record for the longest shutdown in history on Wednesday. Since the House passed a Republican-led CR on September 16, partisan divides have persisted in the Senate. Democrats are demanding action on health care – namely, an extension of enhancements to ACA premium tax credits (PTCs) scheduled to expire this year – and safeguards to curb the administration’s rampant overreach of congressional spending authority. Senate Republicans have largely refused to offer concrete concessions on these fronts, making it impossible for them to get the seven Democratic votes needed to meet the 60-vote filibuster threshold.
This week, talks both among and between the two parties began to pick up, as members of Congress and the American people grew weary from the unprecedentedly long government shutdown. These talks have centered around a short-term continuing resolution, possibly extending funding through the latter part of January, paired with a “minibus” package of appropriations bills that have cleared the Senate floor:
- Agriculture
- Military Construction and Veterans Affairs
- Legislative Branch
While Majority Leader Thune may still bring this option up for a vote today, much uncertainty remains over whether or how the Democrats’ demands in exchange for supporting reopening would be addressed. Some Democrats seemed willing to play ball with Thune’s offer for a “handshake” agreement to hold a vote on extending enhanced PTCs earlier this week.
But Democrats’ resounding electoral success on Tuesday night has only strengthened their demands for tangible concessions, and they came out of a caucus lunch yesterday seemingly unified behind holding their position. This afternoon, Senate Democrats – led by Minority Leader Chuck Schumer – proposed a counter CR package that would pair a short-term CR with the minibus mentioned above and a one-year extension of enhanced PTCs, among other items, though it currently looks unlikely to advance.
Adding complexity to these negotiations, Speaker of the House Mike Johnson stated yesterday that he would not offer a similar deal in the House, and many Democrats rightfully don’t believe legislation extending enhanced PTCs would move forward even if a vote were to be held in both chambers. Further emphasizing Democrats’ point is the fact that President Trump would have to get on board with any agreement that does pass through Congress, and he has spent most of the last two weeks demanding that the Senate end the filibuster to get around the current stalemate – something that Majority Leader Thune has said does not have the votes in the upper chamber.
Shutdown Impact Continues to Ramify
While Congress works on building consensus for a resolution to end the shutdown, the impacts of the discretionary funding lapse continue to mount, as hungry Americans go without vital Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) assistance and federal workers, including air traffic controllers and TSA agents, remain unpaid.
SNAP
On November 1, the more than 42 million Americans who rely on SNAP for valuable nutrition assistance – including 16 million children – went without their monthly benefits for the first time in history.
Two U.S. District Judges last week ordered the administration to release funding from a SNAP contingency fund to be used in case of emergencies. While Trump initially said he would not comply with these lawful orders, the administration quickly corrected, stating the USDA would use this funding to pay out roughly half of people’s monthly SNAP benefits. But the administration has continued to drag its feet on releasing this funding, arguing that it will take weeks or months to get benefits into the pockets of SNAP recipients.
In response to an appeal regarding these delays and the only partial funding of SNAP, U.S. District Judge John McConnell of Rhode Island issued a sharper order yesterday mandating that the administration use its transfer authority to provide November SNAP benefits in full by today. The DOJ has since issued an emergency request to the First Circuit Court of Appeals asking for a pause on the order.
Air Travel/FAA
As TSA workers and air traffic controllers continue to go without pay, leading to staffing shortages at airports across the country, the Trump administration’s FAA ordered more than 40 high-traffic airports to begin cancelling flights today. The cancellations, which begin with four percent of flights today and increase to 10 percent next Friday, are already having a major effect on air travel just a few weeks before the holiday season.
Air traffic delays were one of the driving factors that ended the 35-day shutdown during Trump’s first term (the record holder for longest shutdown before this week), and will continue to add pressure to the current shutdown negotiations as the FAA’s order ramps up in the coming days.
Senate May Stay for Weekend Work
Looking ahead, Senate Majority Leader Thune has indicated that he may hold the Senate in session through the weekend to continue negotiations on a shutdown-ending deal. Even if the Senate can agree on a path forward, it would still need to clear the House and Trump’s desk. The House has been out of session for almost 50 days and has shown little willingness to compromise on its initial CR, and Trump remains focused on a partisan path forward by ending the Senate filibuster. As the shutdown rages on, millions of Americans are feeling the direct effects of Republican inaction, and these consequences will only amplify as the Trump administration continues to do everything in its power to make the shutdown as painful as possible.
China Drops Some Ag. Tariffs
On Wednesday, China announced that it would drop retaliatory tariffs on some farm goods. This announcement follows a handshake agreement last week between Presidents Xi Jinping and Donald Trump to largely call a truce on the mounting trade war. Specifically, China will terminate a 15 percent additional tariff on some American agricultural goods. China will maintain the 10 percent tariff rate it put in place in reaction to Trump’s Liberation Day duties.
American farmers have been uniquely pressured during this trade war as retaliatory efforts have been focused on the agricultural sector. Concerningly for soybean farmers, Beijing will maintain its 13 percent tariff on American soybeans. China continues to turn to Brazil for purchases even after China pledged to resume purchasing American soybeans, which remain pricey with the 13 percent tariff.
Without a formalized, signed trade deal, American farmers remain without certainty as they try to sell their crops. The handshake deal stands on shaky ground, as it could take months to years to finalize a comprehensive trade deal that will give farmers some sort of security.