Senate Process SOP

Update 521 — Senate Process SOP:
Real Reforms and Honorable Manchins

Over time, policymakers in Washington have used the term “bipartisan” to describe bills. But the true meaning of the word has been clouded by the way Washington uses it and how folks elsewhere still understand it. Which bills it applies to — how it is defined case-by-case — is in the eye of millions of beholders besides Sen. Mitch McConnell.

In a recent poll, Senate battleground-state voters, including West Virginians, overwhelmingly supported H.R. 1/S. 1, the For the People Act. In fact, 74 percent of Republicans supported it. Two-thirds are more likely to vote for a candidate who supports it. In 2020, Trump won West Virginia and many of the other states by wide margins. The data indicates that little is seen popularly as more bipartisan than reforms enabling passage of big-ticket legislation today. 

Accordingly, we review the Senate parliamentarian’s reconciliation ruling this week and procedural alternatives to “regular order” in the Senate currently under discussion. 

For more detailed information on where individual Democratic Senators stand on the different paths for filibuster reform, click here.

Best,

Dana

——————–

This week, U.S. Senate Parliamentarian Elizabeth MacDonough issued a ruling allowing Democrats to amend the budget resolution used for the American Rescue Plan (ARP) with 50 votes. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer said Monday that “no decisions have been made on a legislative path forward,” as some parameters still need to be worked out. But regardless, this ruling expands Democrats’ legislative opportunities and has significant ramifications for filibuster reform. 

Implications of Multiple Reconciliations 

Before the parliamentarian’s decision, it was unclear whether Democrats could pass more than one bill this year through the filibuster-proof reconciliation process, in addition to the American Rescue Plan (ARP) enacted last month. Her decision makes clear they can use reconciliation at least twice more in 2021.

A provision of the 1974 Budget Act (section 304) allows Congress to revise a budget resolution it has already approved. Until now, it was unclear whether a revised budget resolution could set the stage for a reconciliation bill. The parliamentarian has now said that it can. Democrats can pass their ambitious $2 trillion infrastructure and jobs package (The American Jobs Plan) as long as the contents are strictly related to spending and taxes. This ruling may allow Democrats to pass Biden’s proposed infrastructure legislation (and potentially more) without Republican votes or reforming the filibuster. 

In addition to his recently announced infrastructure package, Biden is expected to announce a second package focusing on “human infrastructure” like child care and health care. Both packages may be merged into one budget bill that amends the 2021 budget resolution, but Democrats could also separate them. This route involves passing the first infrastructure package by amending the 2021 resolution and passing the second package in the 2022 resolution. 

Reconciliation has its limits, so Democrats are considering ways around the filibuster in order to pass priorities like H.R. 1/S. 1. The parliamentarian’s ruling doesn’t change the scope but the frequency of ways to get Byrd-compliant 50-vote minimum bills passed. 

Hesitation among Senate Democrats remains a considerable hurdle to filibuster reform, but sentiments are changing. Once considered an opponent of reform, Sen. Feinstein has now expressed interest in both a talking filibuster and a democracy carve-out, as have many of her Senate colleagues. In the meantime, the parliamentarian’s decision provides Democrats a path to pass key pieces of Biden’s agenda through reconciliation.

A Filibuster Too Far

Democrats keen on reform appear to be coalescing around a talking filibuster or carve-outs, but the caucus remains divided. Several Senators continue to advocate for all-out elimination while others remain skeptical of reform. Below we evaluate reform options as well as other proposals under consideration. 

Effective Reforms:

  • Changing Votes Required for Cloture: Lowering the required vote for cloture from 60 to a simple majority (or somewhere in between) would technically leave the filibuster in place, but a bipartisan group of senators could still vote for cloture in a majority vote. Other related reform ideas include:
  1. Unanimous Consent Agreement (UCA): This reform requires only the majority caucus to reach unanimous consent, preventing Mitch McConnell from weaponizing UCAs to bog down the Senate. This would give extra leverage to moderate Democratic senators.
  2. Incremental Cloture: Lowering the cloture vote threshold by some number with each passing week of debate would make it more difficult for the minority to take advantage of the supermajority requirement.
  • Exemptions/Carve outs: Removing the filibuster for certain types of legislation could be done for emergency legislation (such as related to war or economic crises) and must-pass bills such as appropriations, democracy legislation, or voting rights legislation. Note that reconciliation itself is a fiscal policy carve-out all Senate Democrats supported in the ARP. 
  • Changing Debate Rules: The filibuster is not hard-written into the Senate rules. In order to eliminate or reform the filibuster, the Senate could adopt new rules limiting the hours of debate or set up a mechanism in which the majority controls the length of debate (similar to the House Rules Committee). This would not be unprecedented, as the Senate already has limited debate for certain types of legislation like reconciliation and fast-track trade authority. 

Filibuster reform advocates and Senate Democrats alike have been vocal about a “democracy carve out,” scrapping the filibuster for voting rights legislation. Schumer has made it clear that ‘everything is on the table’ when it comes to getting voting rights passed and has indicated he intends to bring voting rights bills to the floor. Whether he starts with S. 1 (the For the People Act), H.R. 4 (the John Lewis Voting Rights Act), or other legislation, Schumer will want to test the waters of bipartisan support and build a mandate against GOP obstruction. 

Given the parliamentarian’s ruling, moderates in the Democratic caucus may have more flexibility to oppose filibuster reform if more of Biden’s jobs plan can get through the Senate without it. But as more states continue to pass contentious bills suppressing the right to vote, the pressure to pass democracy reform legislation will grow. If Schumer can take advantage of a national movement for voting rights, the Democratic caucus may be able to produce 50 votes for a carve-out standardizing voting rights for all Americans. 

Number of bills restricting voting access introduced in the 2021 legislative session

Source: Brennan Center

Reforms to Little Effect:

  • Talking Filibuster: The talking filibuster imposes a higher cost on the minority by preventing Senators from phoning in a filibuster, but it would not allow for the majority to bring an end to debate.
  • Present-and-Voting Standard: Similar to the talking filibuster, this reform requires the physical floor presence of 41 senators to prevent cloture, which would impose a higher cost on the minority. But it would likewise keep the supermajority requirement intact and would not come close to making a filibuster impossible. 

Schumer’s Strategy 

Sen. Schumer will spend the next months weighing his options for reforming the filibuster. All the while, his caucus will seek consensus. As Leader Schumer watches a growing proverbial ‘graveyard’ of Republican obstructed legislation, momentum for reform as bill after bill dies might grow correspondingly. 

By moving bills to the floor and forcing Republican senators to vote down hugely popular and critical legislation, Schumer can help Democrats’ will become tactics and strategy. 

How far Sen. Manchin and other holdouts are willing to go and for what is the next-order problem to be addressed when presented. Until then, even op-eds are about principles but also hypotheticals. 

56 thoughts on “Senate Process SOP”

  1. Magnificent beat ! I wish to apprentice whilst you amend your
    web site, how could i subscribe for a weblog website?

    The account helped me a acceptable deal. I have been a little bit acquainted of this your broadcast provided vibrant clear
    idea asmr 0mniartist

  2. Ahaa, its fastidious conversation concerning this
    article here at this blog, I have read all that, so now me also commenting
    at this place. asmr 0mniartist

  3. I’m still learning from you, as I’m trying to reach my goals. I absolutely liked reading all that is posted on your blog.Keep the information coming. I loved it!

  4. I loved as much as you will receive carried out right here.
    The sketch is attractive, your authored subject matter stylish.
    nonetheless, you command get bought an impatience over that you wish
    be delivering the following. unwell unquestionably come further formerly again as exactly
    the same nearly a lot often inside case you shield this increase.

  5. You have made some really good points there.
    I looked on the web to learn more about the
    issue and found most people will go along with your views on this
    site.

  6. I’m not sure where you are getting your information, but great
    topic. I must spend a while studying much more or working out more.

    Thank you for wonderful information I was on the lookout for
    this information for my mission.

  7. I love what you guys tend to be up too. This sort of clever work and coverage!
    Keep up the great works guys I’ve incorporated you guys to
    my own blogroll.

  8. Howdy just wanted to give you a quick heads up and let you know
    a few of the pictures aren’t loading correctly. I’m not sure why but I think its
    a linking issue. I’ve tried it in two different
    web browsers and both show the same outcome.

  9. Wow, incredible blog layout! How long have you been blogging for?
    you made blogging look easy. The overall look of your web site is fantastic, as well as the content!

  10. scoliosis
    That is really attention-grabbing, You are a very professional blogger.

    I have joined your rss feed and stay up for seeking more of your excellent post.

    Also, I have shared your website in my social networks scoliosis

  11. scoliosis
    Remarkable issues here. I am very glad to peer your post.
    Thanks so much and I am looking ahead to contact you.
    Will you please drop me a mail? scoliosis

  12. scoliosis
    Hello! This post could not be written any better!
    Reading through this post reminds me of my good old room mate!
    He always kept chatting about this. I will forward this post to him.
    Fairly certain he will have a good read. Thank you for sharing!

    scoliosis

  13. You really make it seem so easy with your presentation but I find this topic
    to be actually something that I think I would never understand.

    It seems too complex and extremely broad for me. I am looking forward for your next post, I’ll try to
    get the hang of it!

  14. Hmm is anyone else having problems with the pictures on this blog
    loading? I’m trying to determine if its a problem on my end or if it’s
    the blog. Any feed-back would be greatly appreciated.

  15. Its like you read my mind! You seem to know a lot about this, like you wrote the book in it or
    something. I think that you can do with a few pics to drive the message home a bit, but instead of that,
    this is magnificent blog. A great read. I’ll certainly be
    back.

  16. It’s really a cool and helpful piece of information. I am glad that you simply shared this useful
    info with us. Please stay us up to date like this. Thanks for sharing.

  17. It is appropriate time to make a few plans for the longer term and it is time
    to be happy. I’ve learn this post and if I may I desire to
    counsel you some attention-grabbing things or advice. Maybe you can write
    subsequent articles regarding this article. I desire to learn more things about it!

  18. I simply couldn’t depart your site prior to suggesting that I
    actually enjoyed the standard info an individual supply on your guests?
    Is gonna be back frequently to check up on new posts

  19. Hello there, simply was alert to your blog thru Google, and located that it is truly informative. I’m gonna watch out for brussels. I’ll appreciate if you proceed this in future. Lots of folks shall be benefited from your writing. Cheers!

  20. Good site you have got here.. It’s hard to find high-quality writing like yours nowadays.
    I really appreciate individuals like you! Take care!!

  21. Howdy! This article couldn’t be written much better! Reading through this article reminds me of my previous roommate!
    He always kept talking about this. I most certainly will forward this post to
    him. Fairly certain he will have a very good read. I appreciate you for
    sharing!

  22. hey there and thank you for your information – I’ve definitely picked up something new from right here.

    I did however expertise a few technical issues using this
    site, since I experienced to reload the website many times previous to I could get it to load properly.

    I had been wondering if your web host is OK? Not that I’m complaining, but
    sluggish loading instances times will very frequently affect your placement in google and could damage your quality score if advertising and marketing with Adwords.
    Anyway I’m adding this RSS to my e-mail and can look out for much more of your
    respective exciting content. Make sure you update this again very soon.

  23. I just couldn’t go away your web site before suggesting that I extremely loved the usual info an individual supply to your visitors? Is gonna be back continuously in order to check up on new posts.

Leave a Reply to gamefly of

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *